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Egypt going to war in Libya ?!

 
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Ikon
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:14 am    Post subject: Egypt going to war in Libya ?! Reply with quote

We all know that the situation in Libya has been bad since 2011 and that a civil war is ravaging the country. Clearly no country bordering Libya wants chaos to get so bad that it could effect them. I've not really been following events, so was surprised yesterday by news that the Egyptian army has moved up to the Libyan border in force, and that el-Sisi has issued an ultimatum to the government in Tripoli to stop their offensive operations by 1600 today Egyptian time, that's in three hours time from posting this. So far there has been no response from Tripoli. Why I post this here should be obvious, for if Egypt goes to war, and particularly against a regime backed by Turkey, things could escalate, and while of course any war is bad, war involving Egypt has ramifications beyond the "normal" horrors.
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Lutz
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 11, 2020 8:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

On news pages accessible to me (German-language) I can`t find any reference to an officially planned or existing military intervention in Libya by Egyptian troops ...

There are only reports of a presidential mediation attempt by Abd al-Fattah as-Sisi (President of Egypt) between the civil war parties.
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Ikon
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sources within the Egyptian military, and from locals living in the western desert who published photos of tank transporters loaded with M1 tanks moving west. Also the Jerusalem Times made a comment about the tanks at the border waiting to unload from the transporters. APCs and helicopter gunships have also been seen moving west. This actually started in January when large naval exercises took place, including amphibious, and land and airforces in the western desert re-enforced. It's the possible total collapse of Haftar's forces that has caused concern. Egypt had stated before last weekend that they had no intention of sending forces into Libya, but the game looks like it is changing.
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Ikon
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Jerusalem Post article, I wrongly said "Times" in the previous post.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/will-egypt-guarantee-ceasefire-in-libya-with-armed-forces-630720
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Lutz
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"
Krieg in Libyen : Das ist ein Sieg von uns allen
" (Zeit Online - Martin Gehlen, 09.06.2020)

Quote:
... Warum vermittelt nun Ägypten?

Die ägyptische Führung stand zusammen mit der Führung der Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten (VAE) von Anfang an an der Seite Haftars, auch wenn auf ägyptischer Seite die Frustration über den halsstarrigen Feldmarschall wuchs. Der ägyptischen Regierung geht es vor allem darum, Ägyptens Westgrenze zu Libyen zu sichern und das Einsickern von Terrorgruppen zu verhindern. Seit dem Kollaps der Offensive gegen Tripolis verdichten sich die Anzeichen, dass die ägyptische wie auch die emiratische Führung Haftar nun fallen lassen wollen. Der General sei "auf dem Weg nach draußen", niemand setze mehr auf ihn, zitierte das ägyptische Onlineportal Mada Masr libysche und ägyptische Quellen. Als Nachfolger favorisiert Ägyptens Regierung den Präsidenten des ostlibyschen Parlaments in Tobruk, Aguila Saleh. Dessen Reformplan sieht einen dreiköpfigen Präsidialrat vor, besetzt mit je einem Vertreter der historischen Regionen Libyens, Tripolitanien im Westen, Kyrenaika im Osten und Fessan im Süden. Diese provisorische Staatsspitze soll in einer 18-monatigen Übergangsphase eine nationale Einheitsregierung für Libyen ernennen und landesweite Neuwahlen ausschreiben. ...


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Quote:
... Why does Egypt now mediate?

The Egyptian leadership, along with the leadership of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), stood alongside Haftar from the outset, even though frustration over the stubborn field marshal grew on the Egyptian side. The Egyptian government is primarily concerned with securing Egypt's western border with Libya and preventing the infiltration of terrorist groups. Since the collapse of the offensive against Tripoli, the signs have increased that the Egyptian and the Emirati leadership now want to drop Haftar. The general is "on the way out", no one is counting on him anymore, the Egyptian online portal Mada Masr quoted Libyan and Egyptian sources. As the successor, the Egyptian government favors the President of the Eastern Libyan Parliament in Tobruk, Aguila Saleh. Its reform plan provides for a three-member presidential council, each with one representative from the historical regions of Libya, Tripolitania in the west, Cyrenaica in the east and Fessan in the south. This provisional head of state is to appoint a national unity government for Libya in an 18-month transition phase and to hold nationwide new elections. ...

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Ikon
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I read the article in Mada Masr, and others, and agree that Egypt wants to secure the border and not get involved in a war in Libya as it's not something they want now or at any time. The issue though is in unforeseen events, for instance, if stability cannot be maintained in Cyrenaica by the Libyans themselves, then Egypt may have to act to secure the border in depth, exactly the same as Turkey is doing in Syria. So if they do move into Libya, it could escalate, as these things tend to do. Egypt and Turkey do not like each other, and any Egyptian involvement in Libya could potentially put them in conflict with Turkish backed fighters, or even Turkish forces, and we have seen this happen between Russian and Turkish forces in Syria when they become too embedded with their proxies. I don't foresee a war between Egypt and Turkey as neither would want that, but circumstances could lead to the situation in Libya becoming far more unstable with several powers vying for their oil, and to control the oil under the eastern Med, claimed by Libya, Italy, Greece, Turkey and Egypt, with Italy and Turkey taking sides against Greece and Egypt. Who can tell what will happen in the future.
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